Oi War reopened

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Portuguese SP leader Soares division of power between the country's two national communities (French-speaking and Dutch-speaking).

There, also, immediate general elections are likelyonly a few months after the last ones.

Unscheduled

• The wave of possible or certain unscheduled elections in Europe (Britain as well as Italy, Portugal and Belgium), far from reflecting the strength of democratic values, are more a manifestation of the failure of the traditional forms of control of the working class-through parliamentary rule and the collaboration of the labour bureaucrats-in conditions of economic crisis and the threat or actuality of mass upsurge of the working class. 1a0000 It is not only the Portuguese ruling class which is now looking towards non-parliamentary forms of rule.

Under combined political and economic pressure, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), voted last Tuesday to increase the basic price of oil by 9% to $14.5 dollars a barrel.

But many oil states have already made it clear that they will exceed this new basic level, adding premium of not less than $1.20 per barrel to it.

Aigeria announcea next day that its crude oil will increase in price by, 25%a level likely to be matched by Libya and Nigeria.

At the same time nearly every oil state that increased output on a temporary basis during the period while Iran became a net importer of oil is now preparing to cut back to their, former levels of production-both in order to conserve stocks and to keep market prices high.

Inflation

These price increases will serve as a major factor triggering a new intensified round of inflation and recession in the advanced capitalist countries, and will further sharpen the acute economic crisis faced by the many underdeveloped nations that rely heavily on oil imports.

The EEC Commission for instance estimates that every one dollar rise in the price of oil cuts growth rates in the EEC by 0.4% and raises inflation by 0.3%.

But this calculation leaves out the new factor in the recession-a world shortfall in oil supplies of around two million barrels a day, caused by cutbacks in Iranian production.

Indeed the • Iranian revolution has been a major factor in forcing through this latest price increase. The Shah had, along with the Saudis, been in the forefront of resistance to big price increases that disrupt the shaky economic structures of imperialism.

Despots

The new, nationalist regime has adopted a more militant posture.

And, more to the point, he ignominious fate of the Shah has made every despotic oil Sheikh and dictator look to his own future, and to securing the financial means to boister his rule against any similar movement-by a combination of cosmetic reforms and military spending.

! These pressures forced even the "moderate" Saudi leaders to agree to the 9% increase, and to hedge the question of whether they too will soon impose the $1.20 surcharge.

The OPEC decision has already brought about a 16% increase in North Sea oil prices--and will ensure in Britain that whether Thatcher or Callaghan is elected on May 3, 1979 will prove a year of massive price inflation and oil crisis parallelling the traumatic events of the first "Oil War" of 19734.