Sadat faces ruin

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The gamble of. President of Egypt, Anwar Sadat, in signing a non-aggression pact with the Israeli government could a soon cost workers their jobs.

In particular, workers at Westland, Rolls Royce and British Aerospace may now have to face redundancy.

As reported in past editions of Socialist Press Arab governments in the Middle East, quite as reactionary as those of Egypt and Israel, piqued by the prospect of large sections of the Egyptian bourgeoisie making a fast buck as a result of the new deal with the Israeli government, have been applying economic and political pressure in order to beat Sadat back into line.

All these governments must now accept that this is unlikely; but their actions have a logic of their own which is now playing itself out.

On the one hand, the poorest and most hysterical governments in the area insist on maintaining and stepping up the sanctions in order to conceal their own political weaknesses and lack of principle on the question of Palestine, and in the hope of picking up some crumbs of redirected aid and trade.

On the other, richer regimes are now becoming alarmed at the impact of their own actions, which began as token gestures aimed to preserve the shaky stability of the area through an even shakier unanimity.

But while not many of the individual governments. really want to bring Sadat down, fearing the unknown forces that might emerge to replace him, and the possibility of a movement by Egypt's exploited masses, their collective action now seriously threatens his regime. now seriously threatens his regime.

Not very secure to start with, the Egyptian economy will soon feel the sharp effect of a withdrawal of inter-governmental aid if this isn't replaced by aid from the West.

Aid cut off

And, so far, whilst aid from neighbouring governments is being cut off, laccelerating a process started some years ago), increased aid from the imperialist powers, on the scale demanded by the Egyptian economy has not been forthcoming.

Indeed, Western financiers are reluctant to lend money to a government which. has such strained relations with its neighbours.

As a result of this there is beginning what amounts to a panic, withdrawal of money deposited in Egypt by the rich states of the Middle East.

The Kuwait government, at the time of writing, for instance, Is toying with the idea of withdrawing: $1.1 billion on special deposit with the Egyptian Central Bank, precisely because it might otherwise be lost should Sadat actually fall.

Investments threatened But a withdrawal of that size would only guarantee further withdrawals-which could ultimately threaten other Kuwaiti investment in Egypt!

The Kuwaiti government must also be worried that their request for their money back will be met with a flat refusal.

Of more immediate interest however will be the winding up of the Arab Organisation for Industrialisation (AOl), a joint venture sited in Egypt, designed to provide local governments with sophisticated armaments built on licence.

The participants in the AOl are obviously worried about their weaponry falling into the wrong hands and so have decided to shop elsewhere.

Unless some kind benefactor now steps in to prop up the whole enterprise, 15,000 skilled jobs will be lost in Egypt alone and, as the order books shorten, British workers could also eventually face the sack.

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[ALIST PRESS, Wednesday 23 May 1979 ag 2013.000