Somoza's fall casts long shadow over C. America

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The repercussions of the overthrow of Somoza are becoming more and more apparent throughout Central America.

In Guatemala the dictatorship of General Romeo Lucas Garcia is increasingly on the defensive and relying heavily on the 'unofficial' secret anti-communist army to suppress oppos ition with its terror squads.

The flight of capital out of Guatemala since the fighting in Nicaragua has been estimated at $40 millions and is rising, land prices have slumped drastically and there are signs of splits within the bourgeoisie, particularly between the traditional agricultural trading sectors and the industrial interests linked with the Central American Common Market, This division has yet to take a decisive political form but the industrialists are heavily reliant upon Nicaragua for raw materials and are clearly anxious to achieve some form of rapprochement with the Sandinista regime.

A more immediate and potentially far greater threat lies with the Ejercito Guerrillero de Pobres (EGP-The Guerrilla El Salvador's Romero Army of the Poor) which has close links with the Guerra Popular Prolongada faction of the Sandinistas.

Many members of the EGP fought in Nicaragua and they have increased their activity in Guatemala noticeably over recent weeks with a series of occupations not only of farmland but also of villages and small towns the centre of country.

These occupations have been undertaken by well-armed groups of up to 150 men and women, well-known in the area and they have gained the support of the local peasantry which successive regimes have always viewed as highly conser vative and a firm guarantee against 'insurgency'.

Strikes

in addition to this the regime is facing increased difficulties in the towns. Nationwide strikes by students in the first two weeks of August obtained the reinstatement of 5,000 students expelled in Quezaltenango despite the fact that a member of the secret police was killed in one school and that the chief of the secret police had identified the strike with the 'extreme left' All indications from the urban trade union movement point to increasing reorganisation and strength although no major move has yet been made.

Reports from Guatemala City suggest that the popular movement there is stronger than it was in Nicaragua before the civil war.

Occupied

The crisis in El Salvador is even more acute. Churches and factories in San Salvador continue to be occupied by workers and students who brave the dangers posed by the regime's death squad-the White Warriors' Union-who have killed several hundred people in the last few months.

The most publicised action has, predictably, involved foreigners: two Saivadorean managers and a US citizen were held hostage for over a week by workers of the Apex textile plant in demand for increased wages and better conditions of work.

Actions such as this occur daily and the tempo of guerrilla activity is also increasing after a comparative lull in July and directed much more openly against government installations.

The regime, having lifted a state of siege only a few weeks ago, is on the verge of reimposing it and ditching its sham "dialogue" with those few religious figures and dissident bourgeois groups who were guileless enough to believe in any possibility of accord.

The real threat to the Romero government comes from the Bloque Popular Revolucionario (BPR-Popular Revolutionary Bloc) a heterogeneous organisation of unions, clerical groups, leftist and bourgeois opposition parties that is now said to number some 20,000 people.

Clandestine

The Bloc has links with the guerrillas and maintains a clandestine organisation but has not yet made a call for armed action.

The character of the Bioc and the rival Frente de Accion Popular Unificada (FAPUUnited Popular Action Front) is in many respects similar to the popular frontism of the FSLN , and there is still very little indication of the strength of Marxist forces in El Salvador.

However, the crisis is sufficiently grave to merit a surreptitious visit by Viron Vaky, assistant secretary of state for inter-American affairs, earlier this month to give a direct report to Cyrus Vance on the degree to which El Salvador is "salvageable"

'Extremism'

Vance is apparentiy reluctant to resume military aid to both El Salvador and Guatemala for fear of pushing the masses to 'extremism' and jeopardising the increasing rapport the US has established with the Nicaraguan Junta.

The Pentagon, naturally, argues for full support but in either case it is clear that the overthrow of Somoza has narrowed the options for imperialism and is urging on the revolutionary process throughout Central America.