Respite Burnham

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The 'socialist government of Guyana has gained a breathing-space: in its mounting conflict with the militant struggles of the working class.

Deals with imperialism's IMF had forced Prime Minister Forbes Burnham to impose a wage freeze in the public sector which heavily dominates the This provoked the recent major wave of strikes which has now fallen back. Workers in the bauxite industry returned to work two weeks ago after a month on strike.

They were later followed by other unions who had taken solidarity action, and finally the Guyana Agricultural Workers Union called off the strike by its 20,000 members last Wednesday.

Threats from the government against the strikers reached a pitch when Burnham addressed the convention of the ruling People's National Congress to attack 'reactionary and political zealots' (the left opposition and its mass of working class supporters), and to declare that political strikes would be met with 'legitimate political sanctions' (state repression).

VICTORY

THE Polisario Front is continuing to 'press ahead with its military campaign inside Morocco.

In the third of their recent attacks on the southern garrison town of Lebouirate, the Sahrawi guerrillas claim to have captured substantial quantities of vehicles and equipment, and to have killed 800 Moroccan troops before being driven back after one day of occupation.

A temporary halt to the civil war in Chad has been achieved by the tireless diplomatic efforts of the Nigerian military regime.

At a recent meeting in Lagos a ceasefire was agreed between 11 parties, representing different fractions of the FROLINAT liberation front, of the state armed forces and othér groups.

The conference also succeeded in piecing together a new fragile government, and unanimously demanded an end to the continued presence of French imperialist troops in Chad.

But the rivalries of opportunist ambition are only thinly veiled by this facade of unity.

They will undoubtedly interlact with the forces of economic crisis and the unfolding class struggle in the whole region to bring about the collapse of this highly unstable coalition.

The Socialist leaders rightly see Berlinguer's new. offensive in favour of the historic compromise as an attempt to undermine the growing influence which the small Socialist Party is gaining at the expense of the CP.

The main contentious issue at the forthcoming Christian Democratic congress will be which offer of collaboration from the two main workers' parties should be accepted as a priority.

So while opportunism may cause fissures in the Christian Democratic party, it leaves the Italian working class with no independent lead.

Yet workers now face a new offensive of the capitalist class which is so desperate to resolve its economic crisis.

Sliding scale

One of Cossiga's first aims parallels a policy of the Thatcher government and highlights the importance of the struggle for a true sliding scale of wages under workers' control.

Most Italian - wage contracts contain a limited but significant sliding scale (escalation) clause which the capitalists have for years been trying to destroy.

Cossiga is now proposing that the index on which the mise we le renewing social bloc offers other components of society win their approval or at least their neutrality."

So. this nuance on th historic compromise mean that:

"Our discourse on austerity. was not limited posin the need or better proposed and proposes new economic policy which previsages an intervention of the working class in the STUCCO accumulation itself."

Gymnastics

Despite Berlinguer's gymnastics, the circle will not be squared. Neither his position nor that of the Cossiga government can be maintained for long, Attention now focussed on the congress of the Christian Democrats. If they fail to agree some new formula for coalition then the next government crisis can be expected to precipitate new elections.

Meanwhile the force which is the real pressure on Christian Democrats, Stalinists and reformists alike-the Italian working class-is showing new signs (a wave of strikes in transport and elsewhere) that it is not prepared much longer to hold back its pressuring demands in the interests of capitalist stability.

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MES For anyone who still doubts it, the Tory slump is officially on.

Three major forecasting bodies-the London Business ochool, anhant tha Nanstrant of Allied Economics and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research have added gAN their voices to the "frighteningIy bad" predictions spoken of and the warnings of the OECD.

They all agree that British capitalism faces static economic arminith maintina. unomainu. ment and a prolonged deficit on the balance of payments.

The latest published figures from the NIESR forecast inflation at 17% by the end of the year, and a worsening trade situation as British manufacturers are hit by the still rising pound and the slump worldbasino Unemployment is predicted to rise to 1,6 million by 1980.

This will be given an added boost by the cash crisis that is iooming for many British manufacturing firms.

The rising value of sterling is reducing the prices of commodities produced by overseas competitors both in the home market and abroad.

But the high British interest rates which sustain the rise in sterling are to remain in force indefinitely according to Prime Minister Thatcher.

This raises the cost of borrowing finance from the banks, and puts a real squeeze on the profits of productive Overcapacity While interest rates remain high, available markets are static or shrinking-resulting in the under-utilisation of plant and equipment-making it difficult to repay existing loans, let alone expand production.

SOCIALIST This overcapacity is undoubtedly a factor behind the reported plans by Michael. Edwardes to slash back the! British Leyland workforce in a new round of closures and redundancies.

Productivity

And it also stands behind thè new open Tory campaign designed to persuade workers that no pay increases at all should be conceded without corresponding increases in productivity.

In the current situation of economic stagnation every productivity increase must result in redundancies and further rationalisation of industry.

To accept in any way at all that workers should trim their demands to accomodate to the economic crisis faced by the employers means in this period Wednesday 5 September 1979 in effect to accept the inevitability of mass unemployment and falling living standards.

Alternative

But there is an alternative: the crisis stems not from a lack of raw materials, or productive forces or from any lack of demand for finished commodities of all kinds.

The crisis stems from the inability of capitalism to develop the productive forces or utilise the available material resources for the satisfaction of human need.

The answer is to mobilise the potentially invincible strength of the working. class in the struggle for the overthrow and expropriation of capitalism and the establishment of a planned socialist economy in which need, not profit, dictates the shape and pace of development.

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CHAD TRUCE