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rFOR AN INDEPENDENT TUK AN INDEPENDENI T SOVIET AFGHANISTAN!

Over the last three weeks the army of the Soviet Union has moved ruthlessly and decisively to reinforce the position of the Moscow bureaucracy in Afghanistan.

i Probably as many as 50,000 Soviet soldiers are now in the country. They have moved rapidly in the countryside against. the various guerrilla movements, which are fighting against the central government in Kabul and which are variously supported and financed by China, the CIA, Iran and Pakista And in Kabut Itself, where che government of Hafizullah has installed egime under Barbak Karmal.

In carrying out these changes the Soviet Union reportedly conspired with Karmal leader of the Parcham (Flag) faction of the Peoples Democratic Party (Communist Party) of Afghanis tan-to murder Aminleader of the Khalq (Peoples) faction.

Qualitative change

And in the aftermath of the gangster-style coup the Soviet troops have apparently disarmed, forcibly confined to barracks or killed in open fighting, a large proportion of the previous 90,000 strong Afghan army, sizeable sections of which continued to be loyal to Amin.

In spite of the numerous contradictions in reports now coming from Kabul, it seems plain that a decisive qualitative change has occurred in the nature of the Soviet presence in Afghanistan.

The USSR is no longer imply the dominant influence und support for the local state ›ower; it has virtually establish›d itself as the state. power tself. • In this sense the Soviet army iccupation of the country could se more complete even than hat of Czechoslovakia in 1968 ir Hungary in 1956. notives for the occupatie, the Politically, of lifferent.

Afghanistan not, like Hungary and Czechoslovakia, a leformed workers' state vhich the Stalinist inreaucracy s in danger of losing control. It s a backward capitalist state in vhich the Soviet-backed regime tood in danger of military lefeat at the hands of imperialst-backed rebel forces.

Hard to quantify

At least in immediate terms the Soviet army's presence in Afghanistan appears to be related both to the external objectives of the Kiemlin and to combatting possible internal threats to the rule of the Soviet Though it is hard to quantify there seems no doubt that the danger of the rise of nationalist movements among the national minorities within the USSRparticularly in the Muslim areas of Soviet Central Asia-is in the minds of the Moscow bureaucracy as it moves to suppress the partly nationalist rebels in Afghanistan.

The Soviet Union has said officially that it sent in the army in response to an imperialist threat to the legitimate It justified the intervention under the charter of the United Nations and has said that it will withdraw the army when the external threat has passed.

The bitter divisions between the Afghan CP factions, however, along with the nature of the Soviet invasion, seem to have created the conditions under which any Soviet army withdrawal in the forseeable future can only result in an immediate takeover by pro-imperialist forces.

The Karmal regime has, therefore, less independence than any of its predecessors.

The political positions it has so far put forward (obviously with Soviet backing) are most of all designed to calm and mollify the Islamic sensibilities which may have been provoked by the Soviet action.

"Holy war"

Karmal has spoken of the need for "a holy war in the name of Allah" against Afghanistan's enemies; he was introduced on television by a member of the Muslim clergy, and spoke of the need to "respect the sacred principles of Islam".

And he has despatched a fulsome message of greeting to the Iranian government.

His exact domestic policies are still unknown but Kabul radio has announced that the objective of the regime is *not to establish socialism but only to open up the way towards it by eliminating feudalism"

Of course, neither the puppets of the Karmal regime, nor their Stalinist puppeteers in Moscow are capable of establishing socialism in Afghanistan.

But the basis of any regime even semi-autonomous of the USSR now looks extremely thin.

It is more probable than ever that the military occupation of the country will be semi-permanent and that the bureaucracy will be forced to seek stability by nationalising the limited capitalist property in Afghanistan and (as in Eastern Europe after World War II) establishing a new deformed workers state through a process of structural assimilation to the Soviet Union.

To the imperialist governments this possibility raises the spectre not so much of Eastern Europe in 1947-49 but rather Cuba in 1959-61.

Because, like Cuba, Afghanistan was not a country allocated by sphere of influence" by the reactionary post-war See page 2 left: Russian tank settlements. imperialism and Stalinism in the The Soviet Union's march post-Vietnam era. into Afghanistan, therefore, This redivision provokes real highlights the worldwide post- conflicts between the USSR and Vietnam weakness of imperial- the imperialists, as the USSR ism in relation to the Stalinist- (with help from its errand boy ruled states. Cuba extends its influence in None of Carter's much-vaun- Africa and parts of Asia. ted retaliatory measures, though But central to this redivision they mark a significant move of the world is the back towards Cold War politics, counter-revolutionary pact will inflict real damage on the between Stalinists and imperialSoviet Union. ism as the post-war settlement.

That even applies to the ban The two forces are united on wheat exports, since the n their hostility towards thi USSR, well warned, bought up orward movement of the work millions of tons in the week. ing class and other oppressed before the ban was imposed and classes. will be able to buy more on the Both stand opposed to the world market. struggle for democratic socialist society under proletarian leaderRedivision shit such a struggle threatens on The shelving of the SALT II the one hand private agreement in the US Congress roperty of the capitalist clas may even be a relief since it was nternationally and on the in any case heading for failure. other, the bureaucratic power So the USSR's ability to and privileges of the parasitic оссиру Afghanistan with relative impunity is part of the Continued on page 2. redivision of the world between